Severe To Cold

We began to recognize the severe threat last weekend and it continues to look impressive on the models today. HOWEVER, the lack of instability may save us from a big event. At this time, that's the big question.

I know there will be some who ask why are we having severe weather in late November into early December? This is completely normal. It happens quite often as we are well into our secondary severe weather season. We have had some of our biggest outbreaks this time of year. I remember November 27th, 2005 when we had 38 tornadoes in Arkansas alone. Three of those tornadoes were rated EF3. 1 person died. I don't think we're on track for something on that magnitude, but I just want you to know it is expected to have severe weather this time of year.

The ground is cold. As moisture returns Thursday into Friday, low clouds will develop. Also, rain and drizzle may engulf the state. THIS IS A GOOD THING!!!! This may lower the overall instability levels quite a bit. Jet stream dynamics are very impressive so if we do manage to get instability elevated, then we're in trouble. However, at this time, I think there's a better chance instability levels stay in check. With that said, there will likely be some sort of severe weather late Friday.

There are still plenty of high school football games to be played and anyone going to these games should stay weather aware! Mother Nature has lousy timing huh?!

Beyond the weekend, colder air returns in full force. Snowpack to the north of the state will be substantial. As air travels over this snowpack, it will have a difficult time modifying on its journey south. This may help add a little extra chill in the air.

While in the VERY long range, winter weather lovers will want to watch late next week. There are a few signals winter weather could return to Arkansas, especially north. Since it's long range, I won't get specific about it, but it has caught my eye and I'm watching it.

COURTESY TORNDOHISTORYPROJECT.COM - November 27th, 2005. I'll never forget covering this for several hours on air with meteorologist Barry Brandt. An incredible 38 tornadoes in just a few hours. 1 person was killed on I-40 near the lumberyard just east of Morrilton. Once again, an outbreak like this is unlikely at this time. I only want you to see severe weather is typical this time of year.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Arkansas in a slight risk for severe weather. If higher instability levels are in place, this will bet upgraded. However, clouds and rain should temper that fuel .

The RPM past 24 hours is not something I trust completely. However, it does show my concern early Friday morning. There should be extensive cloud cover and light rain. If this continues Friday, it will lower the overall instability levels. Warm and moist air is needed to fuel storms and that could stay in check. However, if it clear out, then look out!

The map at 5PM looks messy with plenty of rain and a few rumbles of thunder. At this time, rain and storms should increase in coverage and intensity. Will they be severe? Possibly a few, but once agin, I'm hoping instability levels are lower.

Severe weather impacts at this time. If there's more warmth and moisture, the threat for wind and a few tornadoes could increase.

COURTESY WEATHERBELL.COM - Total snow through Monday. That's a healthy snowpack to the north. As colder air drains out of Canada and travels over the snow fields, there may be an added chill to the air. I think highs in the 30s and 40s will be possible next week for Arkansas. Also, let's watch late next week. The GFS has been showing something interesting, especially for northern Arkansas. However, it's the GFS and it does this ALL... THE... TIME.