Severe To Cold
We began to recognize the severe threat last weekend and it continues to look impressive on the models today. HOWEVER, the lack of instability may save us from a big event. At this time, that's the big question.
I know there will be some who ask why are we having severe weather in late November into early December? This is completely normal. It happens quite often as we are well into our secondary severe weather season. We have had some of our biggest outbreaks this time of year. I remember November 27th, 2005 when we had 38 tornadoes in Arkansas alone. Three of those tornadoes were rated EF3. 1 person died. I don't think we're on track for something on that magnitude, but I just want you to know it is expected to have severe weather this time of year.
The ground is cold. As moisture returns Thursday into Friday, low clouds will develop. Also, rain and drizzle may engulf the state. THIS IS A GOOD THING!!!! This may lower the overall instability levels quite a bit. Jet stream dynamics are very impressive so if we do manage to get instability elevated, then we're in trouble. However, at this time, I think there's a better chance instability levels stay in check. With that said, there will likely be some sort of severe weather late Friday.
There are still plenty of high school football games to be played and anyone going to these games should stay weather aware! Mother Nature has lousy timing huh?!
Beyond the weekend, colder air returns in full force. Snowpack to the north of the state will be substantial. As air travels over this snowpack, it will have a difficult time modifying on its journey south. This may help add a little extra chill in the air.
While in the VERY long range, winter weather lovers will want to watch late next week. There are a few signals winter weather could return to Arkansas, especially north. Since it's long range, I won't get specific about it, but it has caught my eye and I'm watching it.