Severe Thunderstorms Likely
I fully expect a tornado watch to be issued around mid to late afternoon for much of the Channel 7 viewing area, especially the southwestern areas of the state.
As discussed previously, instability is a big question at this time. However, there will likely be just enough to fuel storms. Along with ample amounts of shear, the threat for tornadoes will increase.
There will be 2 rounds of storms to watch. The first will likely turn out to be the most threatening and that arrives from around 5PM to midnight. These storms will produce high winds, heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes will be possible. This will move from south to north across the state.
The next round moves in after midnight and it will be associated with the actual boundary. The severity of this line depends on how much instability is left over. Since we're expecting quite a bit of storminess ahead of this line during the early evening hours, the threat with the 2nd round appears to be less, BUT it's still there.
We'll have near record breaking highs today and Saturday with strong southwesterly winds Saturday. Then the cold begins to return.
I'm still eyeing next Friday/Saturday for winter weather. It's not far fetched to think this is possible, especially northern Arkansas. More on that later. Let's get through this severe weather first.
THE FOLLOWING IS THE HRRR. IT'S A GREAT SHORT RANGE, HI RES MODEL. HOWEVER, IT HAS LIMITATIONS. IT WILL NOT BE PERFECT, BUT WILL GIVE YOU A GOOD IDEA ON HOW THIS MAY UNFOLD.