Severe Threat With Chill To Follow
It's how you "Arkansas"... Severe weather followed by well below average temperatures! As a matter of fact, the European model guidance even suggests temperatures could challenge record lows late next week. That's a long way off though.
First thing is the severe weather threat late Monday and into Tuesday. This could turn out to be an overnight event which adds to the danger. You must have a way to receive warnings. When you walk outside Monday afternoon, you will feel the instability! Temperatures could reach the mid 80s with plenty of humidity. The feels like? The GFS shows a possible scenario.
Instability levels are very high and this raises the concern for severe thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. All severe threats are on the table and with these levels so high, watch for hail!
6PM Monday has surface based instability extremely high over western Arkansas even into central areas.
They come down a bit at night, but are still very high at midnight Tuesday
According to history, the greatest threat for tornadoes occur during the day, but almost 38% of our tornadoes occur at night. It's especially dangerous because many are asleep and not paying attention to the weather.
Following the storms, colder will begin to move south out of Canada.
5 day temperature anomalies from late Tuesday through late Sunday, May 9th shows the concern for a batch of much cooler air. IF this is right, we'll need to watch the records.