Severe Storm Chances
To say it will be active is an understatement. After today (Thursday), we'll have 2 significant rounds of rain and storms and of course one arrives during the weekend.
The main focus for severe thunderstorms will be far eastern Texas into Louisiana. How far north will the unstable air (warm front) make it? Time and time again this spring, the northward extent of the warm sector has been south. It just doesn't move northward lately due to the suppressed storm track. Read the previous blog post for that reasoning. By far, southern Arkansas has the highest chance for seeing severe thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon and evening. The chance decreases further north and the main threat appears to be heavy rainfall. All threats are possible in the enhanced risk area including hail, wind, and a few tornadoes. Most of the rain should exit by late Sunday morning into the early afternoon.
We have outlined a large area next Wednesday for the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Once again, where will the warm sector end up? While it's several days away, this storm may track a bit further north allowing the moist and unstable air to advance into Arkansas. While heavy rainfall and flooding is a threat, there could be hail, wind, and tornadoes. It's too early to pinpoint specific threats, but it's that time of year.
Significant rainfall amounts over the next 7 days will be likely. The bulk of this will fall Saturday and Wednesday. Some locations could see more than 5'', especially southeast Arkansas.
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