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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Secondary Severe Weather Season

No severe weather is in the forecast at this time. However, it's never too early to talk about the possibilities going deeper into Fall. As the jet stream amplifies and cold air chases the warm air of summer away, the atmosphere can shoot off some fireworks. We typically don't see this until November and December, but it can show up at times in October. There have even been times the secondary severe weather season is more active than the primary severe weather season (March, April, and May).

Tornadoes are most numerous in the springtime, then decrease during summer. Notice the jump in September and October. Much of that is due to remnant tropical systems. The numbers increase in November and December as we go into our secondary severe weather season.

This week will be warm and a bit humid. No getting around that. Will it hit 90°? That's tough to do with a wet ground in October, but it can happen. I think mid and upper 80s are more likely. The record highs this time of year are in the low to mid 90s.

Now onto the following week and beyond. The pattern looks cold west and warm east. The battle ground will be wherever the collision in air masses line up. At one point, it looked as if it would set up directly over Arkansas. However, now the data shows it initially setting up just northwest of the state. Regardless, there will eventually be a tendency for the cold to push southeastward and an unsettled weather pattern should develop at some point next week.

If the data I'm looking at is correct, heavy rainfall will be an issue. That's no surprise! Every month since May has been wetter than the previous one. We just had the 12th wettest September on record. I see no reason to believe mother nature's faucet will turn off.

Since it does look unsettled, you can't rule out severe weather. I want to remind you this is VERY much in the long range and can always change. It's just something I always keep in the back of my mind this time of year.

6-10 day temperature outlook. Cold west and warm east. Look at the battle zone across the central U.S. That's where the unsettled weather will set up. Where exactly is tough to pinpoint this far out.

6 to 10 day precip outlook... High chances for above average precip across the central U.S.

8-14 day temperature outlook. Not much change, but the colder air will begin to press further southeast.

The 3-4 week temperature outlook has the cold pushing further to the east with a decent chance for below average temperatures.

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