Saturday Trouble

Severe weather will be possible for much of the state, but we're beginning to narrow down where the highest chance for severe weather will exist. If you are in the risk area, YOU MUST STAY WEATHER AWARE!!!!

The Storm Prediction Center has much of us in an enhanced to slight severe weather risk

This system will have plenty of wind energy, however, instability is not all that high. That fuel needed for severe thunderstorms may dampen overall activity, but we must be weather aware. If there's enough instability, storms will be able to tap into very high winds and gusts could exceed 60-70 mph within storms. AWAY from thunderstorms, high winds will be possible and gusts could exceed 40mph most of the day. With the saturated ground, a few trees may easily tip over.

That red area across Arkansas indicates winds around 60 mph or higher just above the surface. Winds are even higher than that as you go up in elevation. That wind energy is what I'm concern with, especially across the eastern half of the state. If that wind finds its way down to the surface, it will be strong enough to cause damage.

While it's too early to get specific with locations most prone to strong storms, I want to show you what I'm looking at. See the sharp surface moisture gradient from central to northeast Arkansas? That warm front location will need to be watched. Storms forming on that boundary will have the ability to become severe and possibly rotate. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. Again, the worst of the storms MAY form near or along that boundary and where the main dynamics come together. Hopefully, not in Arkansas, but it must be watched.

Overall severe weather impact

In summary...

- Instability levels (storm fuel) may be low due to ongoing rain and clouds. However, there will be a tremendous amount of wind energy for these storms to utilize.

-We must watch the time period from 7AM to 3PM.

-High winds will be the main concern within storms and high wind gusts away from the storms too.

-A tornado or two will be possible and I expect a tornado watch for much of Arkansas.

-This will NOT be an overnight event like so many recently.

-Since many have outdoor activities during the day, MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND KNOW WHERE TO GO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.