Saturday Storms

Strong to possibly severe storms are still in the forecast Saturday. We are now getting a better idea how this may unfold. As mentioned here on the Arkansas Weather Blog very early in the week, there are factors which favor severe weather and factors not favoring severe weather.

-There will be a round of rain and storms Saturday morning. This is crucial in determining the extent of any severe weather later in the day. If the rain and cloud cover is substantial enough, it will limit afternoon destabilization and keep thunderstorms limited. If the morning rain and storm activity is minimal and moves out faster, then there could be enough time for the atmosphere to recharge.

-Most of the morning rain and storms should be non severe.

-At this time, it appears the chance for a 2nd round of afternoon storms is low.

-If storms do develop, they should be isolated. If they do develop, there will be a severe threat with hail, wind, and an isolated tornado or two.

-The entire state has a slight risk for severe storms Saturday

-The chance is a little greater south of I-40 and east of I-30 Saturday afternoon. This area has the greatest chance for clear out and destabilize. Again, this threat is low at this time.

-Any threat Saturday should end by mid to late afternoon for the Channel 7 viewing area.

Using the 3KM NAM from WeatherBell.com. The state has rain and a few storms Saturday morning around sunrise.

By 2PM, that rain is gone and this model tries to develop storms with round 2. This is the most aggressive model showing round 2 and I'm not completely sold on the extent of it at this time.

By 6PM, the storms appear to be struggling in developing. Threat should be ending around this time.

Slight risk for severe weather for the entire state. I have outlined the area with the greatest instability.