• Todd Yakoubian

Saturday Severe

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will move across the state Saturday morning and into the afternoon.

- The weekend will not be a wash-out

- Storms will form in the morning across southern and western Arkansas and QUICKLY move east-northeast.

-damaging winds and flooding will be the main threats. A tornado or two can't be ruled out.

-Gusty winds not associated with thunderstorms will be likely

-There's a lot of talk about warm temperature in the metro. If this occurs, it will likely occur AFTER storms have left the area with gusty westerly winds.

- We must watch where a sharp boundary sets up. It's along and south of the boundary where storms are most likely to cause problems.

-This is NOT an overnight event like so many recently

-You should have a way to receive warnings/watches

-The worst of the thunderstorm activity will be across southern and eastern Arkansas.

The SPC has shifted the enhanced area east, but leaves central AR in the slight risk area.

NAM forecast dewpoints at 9AM. Look at the sharp boundary around Blytheville to Magnolia. It's on and south of the boundary which will need to be watched for the stronger storms with gusty winds. Where it sets-up is important to follow. You do not want to have the higher moisture values!

Simulated radars are never perfect, but you can see the general idea here. Storms around 9 to 10AM southern and eastern Arkansas.

By noon or shortly after, they are moving along and east of the Mississippi River.

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