Whether it's the "Little Rock Block", the "Fayetteville Fizzle", the "Stuttgart Split", or the "Benton Bubble" there's the perception many of us miss out on summertime rainfall. That's mostly due to the convective nature of rainfall this time of the year. It can rain hard at one place, but miss your neighbor down the road. This is very typical in the summertime.
Look at the departure from normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Definitely the haves and have nots. The green, blue, and purple areas represent amounts mostly 2-5'' ABOVE average. The yellow and orange represent areas mostly 1-4'' BELOW average. More widespread rainfall usually return later in the fall, winter, and spring. Summertime brings spotty and heavy rainfall unless a tropical system is providing the moisture.
We are in a moderate to severe drought across the state, but notice the monthly rainfall amounts have been increasing slightly each month since May. Keep in mind, these amounts are for Little Rock.
Will this trend continue into August? There is a decent chance.
We have a front coming into the state and it will bring showers and storms starting Tuesday, but the heaviest of the rainfall may not fall until Wednesday and Thursday. Once again, we can expect the haves and the have nots. I hope it's more widespread! While that's possible, I anticipate hearing people upset they didn't get enough rain and I anticipate hearing people asking for it to stop.
The Weather Prediction Center rainfall over the next few days shows the bulk of the rainfall will fall across western Arkansas. Will it extend further to the east? I think SOME of it will. As explained above, the convective nature to the rainfall will likely bring more to some and less to others.
This period of unsettled weather is not typical for August! As mentioned in a previous blog post, we are likely past the worst of the summer heat. While it will get hot again, triple digit heat is unlikely. If we get the rain some of the models are projecting this week, it is even more unlikely. By this time in the summer, the hot and dry weather typically feeds back on itself and we stay hot. If we put moisture in the ground, you can take the chance for hitting 100° down even further. BRING ON FALL!!!!!!