Rain, Rain, Then More Rain
If we don't receive another drop of rain, this year will STILL end up above average. This storm system will entrain a good bit of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts will be heaviest across the eastern half of the state with some locations receiving 4'' or more by Saturday afternoon.
Before a drop of rain falls today in Little Rock:
Yearly total rainfall 51.47'' (Average for the ENTIRE year is 49.75'')
We are 13.12'' above average for the year.
Below is the HRRR extended version. Central Arkansas will likely receive 1-2'' of rain, but any movement west or east of the heavy rain axis could increase or decrease these amounts. The most likely area to see the highest amounts will be the delta. That might be good news for duck hunters even though we're a few weeks away from the start of the season.
The Euro, NAM, and GFS all have amounts from 1 to 2'' for the metro.
We're not even to the wettest month of the year, November. Let's assume 1.5'' today and Saturday without another drop of rain this month. However, there may be some rain on the 30th. Now, let's assume average rainfall November and December.
That would give Little Rock a total of 63.22'' for the year. Look at the top 10 wettest years on record. We'll be 1.64'' away from breaking into the top 10 wettest years in Little Rock weather history.