Rain For Most, Winter For Some
The picture is clearer, but not completely clear. Remember, we must focus on the track of the 2nd area of low pressure and how much cold air will be available. A track further west means little if any winter weather. A track further east will increase the chance. This is still 4 days away and much can change, however at this time, it appears mostly a cold rain with possible wintry weather north and west.
Here are the key points.
Rain and storms will become likely Wednesday with the cold front.
The severe weather threat is very low and mainly south of Arkansas
A cold rain is likely Wednesday night and Thursday
Flooding could become a concern due to dormant vegetation and the ground not absorbing water efficiently.
Rain amounts could range from 3-5''
The greatest chance for any wintry weather (Snow/sleet/freezing rain) arrives Thursday into Friday morning across northwest and western Arkansas. Higher elevations favored.
Models are NOT forecasts.
Slight risk for excessive Rain Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. This may be extended into Thursday and flood watches possible
GFS snow shows Oklahoma more favored.
Euro shows very little on the back end of the system late this week for the higher elevations.
WPC has a decent chance for wintry weather northwest Arkansas late Thursday into Friday morning.