No Hype, Just The Facts. To Snow or Not To Snow?
A few days ago, the Euro went gangbusters with a significant winter storm while the GFS had absolutely nothing. It suppressed the rain mainly along the Gulf coast. Since then, MUCH has changed. There has been a trend towards the Euro! However, it now appears the track will be too far north and temperatures will be too warm for anything significant.
Is this a model pump fake or is it a done deal. We'll continue to monitor it for you, but I think this is going to turn out to be a cold rain for many. As I have mentioned numerous times, for a significant winter storm, you must have the cold air in place before the storm system arrives.
Far northern Arkansas may see an icy mix of freezing rain and sleet Wednesday into Wednesday night with surface temperatures near freezing. Why not snow, the air aloft will be too warm.
Fast forward to Thursday and maybe very early Friday. The atmosphere may cool enough to change the rain to wet snow flakes mainly across northern Arkansas. While I don't think it will be significant at this time, there COULD be a few travel issues mainly across northern Arkansas. I would not expect large amounts due to marginal temperatures and a wet ground.
Of course this can change and we'll monitor it for you every single step of the way.