Near Record Lows

The coldest air of the season arrives Monday and it could be brutally cold for this time of year.

Record lows to watch

Tuesday (November 12th)... 22° in 1922

Wednesday (November 13th)... 22° in 1911

Thursday (November 14th)... 22° in 1986

Wednesday model guidance for this time period

Tuesday - GFS 23° Euro 22°

Wednesday - GFS 22° Euro 21°

Thursday - GFS 22° Euro 29°

There are signs the Thursday morning low may not be that cold due to clouds and maybe some moisture. That's well in the long range so we'll monitor that for you.

What about Monday as the front comes through? Both the GFS and Euro shows a wave moving through as the cold air spills south. Most of it will fall as rain, but it could change to a wintry mix before ending Monday afternoon and evening. At this time, I don't think it would be a significant event, but it will qualify as a big "WOW" and maybe a "WHOA". :)

It's a big "IF" at this time. Will there be any moisture left by the time the air supportive of wintry weather arrives? This question is not clear and it usually isn't this far out.

Below are models and NOT forecasts courtesy of WeatherBell.com

Euro Monday evening has the moisture leaving, but could end as a light mix or light snow across northern Arkansas. Again, a model and NOT a forecast

The GFS shows a similar scenario, but it's a few hours early with any transition. Timing differencing in the long range is very typical, but it's close here. It could change to a wintry mix north 1/2 before ending. Again, it's a model, NOT a forecast.