Multiple Rounds of Rain and Storms
It's déjà vu all over again. At least 3 rounds of rain and storms will be likely between Wednesday and Thursday. The 1st round arrives Wednesday with a flooding and severe weather threat.
Much of the state has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. the main threats will be wind, hail, and a tornado can't be ruled out.
Timing won't be perfect, but this is our best estimate as of Tuesday morning.
Another round of rain and storms will develop after 1AM and will really get going between 3AM and sunrise Thursday. While there will be a slight risk for severe thunderstorms at this time, the flooding threat will need to be taken very seriously too. Flash flooding is always dangerous, but especially dangerous at night.
Flash flood watch is in effect Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, but there could be more rounds of rain!
The actual front will move through the state Thursday with a few more storms. They probably won't be too widespread, but whatever does develop will have a chance to become severe with heavy rainfall.
Rainfall estimates through late Saturday from the European model. This model has been consistent with another round of rain Saturday. the GFS has not had this, but is now beginning to trend in that direction.