Sunday Snow North?!
It does appear some accumulation will be likely north, but how much? It depends on which model you look at this Friday morning. ALL of them, except the NAM, indicate the typical Ozark snow with a nice coating up high. The past 2 runs of the NAM are extreme and that worries me. While I don't think it will verify, the NAM in the close range being an outlier may be hinting at something. I still think the snow is confined to the north, but amounts MIGHT need to be upped a little.
Why won't it snow further south? There's no true arctic air in place. There are 2 things driving the chance for accumulating snow in the mountains. 1st, elevation. 2nd, dynamics. Lift near the upper low cools the air enough to get snowflakes down to the ground. That's much easier when the ground is at least 1000 to 1500 feet in elevation. For the rest of the state, cold rain.
ONCE AGAIN, MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS. REMEMBER THAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU SEE THE NAM!!!!!!!!!!!
RPM snow amounts
Euro snow amounts
GFS snow amounts
Canadian snow amounts
And the NAM snow amounts. NOT A FORECAST.
The WPC has a good chance for at last 1'' of snow north.
In summary, all models agree of a typical Ozark light snow event. The NAM is a big outlier and as I said, that must be watched. The amounts are likely way off, but it might be trying to tell us something. Not that it will verify, but maybe snow amounts might be a little more. Still a couple of days to see which way it goes. Everybody else will likely only receive a cold rain.