It's the last thing we need, but we must focus on the threat for areas of heavy rainfall across Arkansas and other areas in the Arkansas River Basin.
There are 2 features we need to watch. The first is a significant trough of low pressure in the western United States. The flow around this will send disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft and increase our rain chances around mid week and beyond. At the same time, a tropical system seems to develop in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. It does not matter whether or not this develops, it's tropical moisture and that's not good. There's a chance some of the moisture from that gets entrained into the trough coming in from the west. IF that happens, rainfall amounts will be enhanced. As far as severe weather is concerned, it's possible, but the biggest threat will be flash flooding and additional river flooding. The river will crest over the next few days and what happens this week is critical. Will it raise the river levels higher or will it just prolong the levels where they are now? That will be examined in the coming days.
Also, there's plenty of misinformation going around. One thing I want to clear up is "Flood Stage". The flood stage NEVER changes. Maybe I should say, rarely. It's the water level which changes.
I grew up here in Little Rock and vividly remember the flood of 1990. I never thought I would see that again. Here we are almost 30 years later and we have surpassed that. It's now the 4th highest crest at Little Rock and the highest since 1945. We'll get through this! We always do.
Below you will find MODEL rainfall amounts. Remember, these are models and NOT forecasts. If the tropical moisture gets involved, these amounts could increase. If any of these features move slightly west or east, it can influence what falls within the Arkansas River Basin. Let's hope it steers away from our area, but all models show a very unsettled weather pattern.
Thanks for trusting us at KATV Channel 7.