Mild To Wild

The potential for snow has many talking, but remember I urged extreme caution since day 1. I still think the Ozarks will likely prevent the air cold enough to support winter weather out of our area. The GFS, which has a cold and snowy bias, is even shifting this to the north now. I'm going to follow the Euro here, but keep an eye on the GFS solution. As usual, it's northwest Arkansas and the higher elevations with the best chance for anything frozen. To be clear, it's going to get cold and getting there could bring trouble in the way of strong to severe storms.

• Unseasonably mild weather continues through Tuesday with temperatures falling Wednesday

• The rain arrives in 3 waves.

• The first wave arrives tonight into Tuesday. This is ALL rain with a few storms. There's a low risk for severe storms across southeast Arkansas late Tuesday for wind and hail

• The second wave arrives Wednesday and this will be a cold rain. Far northern Arkansas could see a wintry mix. If you're traveling into Oklahoma or Texas, expect wintry weather

• The 3rd and final wave arrives Thursday. This will likely bring the lightest precipitation compared to the other two. It also has the greatest potential for wintry weather, but once again, I urge caution. Temperatures will be marginal and rain will be the more likely.

ROUND 1 late Monday into Tuesday - ALL rain and few storms. A swath of snow north.

SLIGHT risk for severe storms southeast Tuesday afternoon and early evening. The main threats will be wind and hail

ROUND 2 - Very cold air is established over Texas and Oklahoma. It's cold here, but not cold enough to support snow. Some of the wintry mix could affect western and northwestern Arkansas.

ROUND 3 - Very light and spotty early Thursday, but it COULD be cold enough in spots for a few flakes to mix in. It won't last long.

THOUGHTS - 33° and rain is miserable. Here's he good news. It might be 40° and rain. Sarcasm! Did you see my Facebook LIVE Sunday? Go watch it if you get the chance. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation is going negative and this will deliver shots of cold air over the next couple weeks at least. This does NOT mean winter weather, but I think it's going to become very active with rain and storms. Snow? It's always possible this time of year, but the way this winter has been, I would not get my hopes up.