Marco, Laura, and Arkansas
It's looking more and more likely Laura will have a greater impact on Arkansas late this week. Just to show you how fast things change, 2 days ago, It was Marco heading towards Arkansas and NOT Laura. Could it change again? ABSOLUTELY! This is a very unique situation to say the least and I don't expect models to handle the tropical features well.
For Arkansas, we do NOT want to be on the eastern side of a storm. That will expose us to heavy rain, wind, and isolated tornadoes. As of Sunday morning, it's Laura concerning me the most.
First to Marco. It will make landfall first in the northern Gulf according to the latest forecast track. But could Marco eventually affect what Laura does? Yes. I explain below.
I should have enlarged this map a bit more to show the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, you get the picture. It will track through the northern Gulf and into Louisiana. This track would bring at least some rain to southern Arkansas midweek. HOWEVER, these tracks will continue to evolve and change. Now look at Laura and that official track as of Sunday.
After Marco, Laura will have to cross the track of the previous storm somewhere in the northern Gulf. That ocean water is very warm and can easily supply Marco with plenty of fuel. Here's my question. Will Marco be able to cool the ocean water enough through rain and upwelling to negatively impact the strength of Laura? It's possible! If the track of Laura is correct, we'll get rain no matter what happens with sea surface temperatures. Look at the strength of this storm in east Texas! While it tracks north Thursday and Friday, it will lose some of its wind energy, but could still be a tropical storm in Arkansas ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY. I say that because this is going to change a few more times between now and then.
Now onto rainfall amounts from models. MODELS! These are NOT forecasts.
The Weather Prediction Center
At least a couple inches of rain for many if this forecast above is correct. Also on the table is Marco going west, Laura going east, and Arkansas NOT getting ANY rainfall. That is possible as well believe it or not.
Stay with KATV and the Arkansas Weather Blog as this picture becomes more clear