Legit Snow Chance
The last week of January! We have been hitting on this time period for at least 2 weeks now for the return of winter. Now that we're getting closer, we see a potential storm system interacting with the colder air. If that happens, there will be a chance for snow for portions of the state. As I always say, NOTHING is guaranteed in weather until it happens.
Let's watch next Tuesday/Wednesday. The operational GFS is not aggressive with this feature, but the Euro ensembles and Canadian ensembles are and that gets my attention! How much? WAY TOO EARLY! Where? WAY TOO EARLY, but I will say this may not be confined only to the northern mountains due to the track of the low. Let's dive into the details.
Euro ensemble shows a good chance for at least 1'' of snow for much of western, northern, central, and northeastern Arkansas. This is calculating the chance from 51 runs of a model with each ensemble member having slight variations.
The Canadian ensemble looks fairly similar
The GFS ensemble not as aggressive, but still shows the snow
The track of the low from the Weather Prediction Center. A low tracking south and east of the state is favorable for snow in Arkansas.
What could go wrong?
If the track changes, snow chance may increase or decrease. How much cold air will be drawn into the system to produce wintry weather? How strong will the upper level system be as it moves through the region? Strong lift can cool the atmosphere further which would be favorable. Weaker, not favorable.
Assuming it does happen, this is a fast moving system which may limit amounts PLUS, once it leaves, temperatures will QUICKLY rebound above freezing. This would limit the time of any accumulation.
Many things can go right and many things could go wrong, but there is a chance next week and it's greater than average. We'll give you the newest info.