Late Month Severe

Remember how fast we warmed up after the record cold in February? That's possible in the long range and the Euro is hinting at something around April 28th. As always, long range outlooks are tricky, but I wanted to give you an idea of what I'm looking at.

First, after all this cold air, how fast can moisture return late this month? Looking at sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico, it's warm. Getting that moisture to return may not be too difficult.

The Euro has a strong trough at 500mb around the 28th and it's negatively tilted. This will need to be monitored as the GFS does show the trough as well.

I find it hard to believe we're going to escape significant severe weather late this month into May. I know we've already had 11 tornadoes, but I think it's going to get active once again. It's not a matter of IF, but WHEN?