Is It Too Much To Ask For A Little Precipitation?
I'm stealing a line from Steve Carell (Evan Baxter) in the movie "Evan Almighty"
Cold and dry! Did you read my post yesterday? The models were cranking out a large amount of moisture behind an arctic boundary next Monday evening/Tuesday morning. For several reasons, I thought it was overdoing it. Read the post below for an explanation.
Fast forward to today (Thursday) and the models are already backing off. I still expect a model flip flop or two. The bigger weather story over the next 7 to 10 days will be a temperature roller coaster with cold mostly dominating.
OLD EUROPEAN MODEL RUN EARLY WEDNESDAY VALID NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. I thought this was way overdone.
THE NEWEST MODEL RUN THURSDAY MORNING VALID NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. Trimming back those amounts AND not as much in the cold air.
Late Wednesday run of the GFS. Look out winter coming! Right?
Next GFS run, well, maybe not so much
In summary... Cold will be the big weather story over the next several days. It's something we have been talking about on air and on the Arkansas Weather Blog. The cold would arrive mid to late January and here it is. What about the moisture? I just don't see much at all.
With true arctic air, it does not take much moisture to get a few snow flakes and I think that's still possible. A weak disturbance in a dry northwesterly flow can produce light snow flurries and snow showers. There are times when the higher elevations can enhance lift and produce a bit more. Arctic air will squeeze out as much moisture as possible with flurries, but it usually doesn't amount to much.
Once again, if it changes, we'll let you know.