Ice Is Not So Nice

Love snow, can't stand ice. The pattern which produces an icy mess we identified a little more than a week ago and here it is.

When dealing with arctic air, remember our rules? It's stronger than models predict and arrives faster than models predict. This happens 99 out of 100 times. Could this be the 1 it doesn't? Maybe.

There are a few things going on which make this a very complex situation. The cold air will slowly move into the area, especially on a northeast wind around the Ozarks. At the same, time, there is a warm, moist flow loaded with moisture coming from the southwest. With that on top of arctic air means trouble and all forms of precipitation becomes likely across the state. What you receive will all depend on the depth of the cold air and of course, surface temperature.

Watch!

While there will be some wintry weather Monday across northern Arkansas. Let's watch Tuesday, especially the afternoon. The GFS interpretation has freezing rain in pink, sleet in orange, and snow in blue. Again, it's a model and NOT a forecast. the depth of the cold air determines which precip type you get.

GFS temperatures. NOT much margin for error, BUT it is at or below freezing for much of northern Arkansas. The danger here is that the air is colder further south as the NAM depicts.

The NAM typically does a better job handling arctic air. It's interpretation for late Tuesday. Again, NOT not a forecast. It's a model

NAM temperatures

As I said, temperature means EVERYTHING when it comes to ice. You can have freezing rain at 32° and the impacts change greatly if it's only a few degrees colder.

Impacts from the NWS. Notice eastern AR will have greater impacts. I suspect this minor to moderate impacts will expand in future outlooks.

This of course can still change. If there's an adjustment, it's further south. But we'll see.