Hurricane Laura Taking Aim On Arkansas

So far the forecast is on track and it's not good for Arkansas.

Laura will be the second tropical system to affect the state this year bringing the potential for very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. I expect a flash flood watch to be issued and we'll likely be placed under a tornado watch Thursday.

Watch what happens when it makes landfall. If the hurricane produces tornadoes along the coast and inland, it will likely produce some in the outer feeder bands once it moves further north. I was discussing this with Meteorologist John Robinson. There are times when a hurricane does not produce tornadoes or very few once on land and that trend continues as it moves further along. However, the opposite seems to be true too. If you see several as the system moves on land, you can bet more will develop as the tropical system advances further inland.

I'm very concerned about the potential for extremely heavy rainfall despite this system moving at a brisk pace through the state. Tropical systems are loaded with moisture. The European is the extreme scenario with almost 10'' over southwest Arkansas. That's the same area that had almost 10'' just last week. REMEMBER, THAT'S A MODEL AND NOT A FORECAST. I have more below.

The following are the computer models. These are NOT forecasts and you should not take them literally. This is best used to determine where the axis of heavy rainfall will occur. It's surround the track and that's why it's so important to pin that down in the forecast.

Euro

GFS

NAM

The graphic below IS a forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. I agree with this given the data today. You can easily depict the track of the storm as Laura moves north, then east.

There's a very good chance for tropical storm force winds over southern Arkansas Thursday. The storm will lose its wind energy further north, but continue with heavy rain.