• Todd Yakoubian

Hurricane Dorian and Arkansas

Hurricane Dorian may have an impact on Arkansas weather, but not in the way you would think. Typically, if a tropical system tracks towards Arkansas, rain and wind would be an issue. In the case of Dorian, it's hot and dry weather.


If this does become a strong hurricane, there could be significant subsidence in a large area surrounding the storm. This is sinking air which leads to lower humidity and hotter temperatures. Could we make a run at 100° later next week? I have doubts about it, but mid 90s may come back briefly. Remember, the latest 1st 100° day in Little Rock is September 6th, 1922. If this storm developed a couple weeks earlier and we didn't have as much soil moisture, I would say 100° would be a strong possibility.


I'll never forget hurricane Floyd moving up the east coast of the United States many years ago. It didn't make landfall, but the sinking air around the storm caused a huge burst of heat. Before I came home in 2005, I was working in Chattanooga, TN and remember the mercury climbing well into the 90s to near 100 in September as the storm passed by well east in the Atlantic.


If the storm isn't all that strong, then the heat impact will be very minimal for us. Also, there's always an outside chance this tracks even further west and brings us rain. However, at this time, I think that chance is extremely low and this storm will recurve well east of Arkansas keeping us on the dry side.



The Euro from Eurowx.com. This is valid late next Thursday. Remember, this is only a model and NOT a forecast. The white area in southern Alabama and Florida is high relative humidity associated with Dorian. The brown area west of it including Arkansas is very dry air wrapping around on the north and west side. Dry air heats quickly and cools quickly too. With the added sinking air, temperatures could become hot once again.

The 24 hour high temperature forecast from the Euro on Thursday September 5th shows the potential for hot weather in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. See the temperatures in Alabama and Georgia underneath the cloud canopy from Dorian? It's much cooler there with readings in the 70s.



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