Hope You Like Rain!
Multiple storm systems will impact the region over the next few weeks as the pattern changes. Does that mean snow? Of course, it's possible since it's February. However, rain and storms will be making headlines for awhile.
Let me explain this set-up.
Thanks to WeatherBell.com for the model maps. Love that site. Look below! This is the 500mb height anomalies. It's a great tool to understand where the ridges and troughs are located. For weeks, Alaska has had a trough trapping the cold air up there. A ridge (in red) is needed to shove it south. THAT'S HAPPENING NOW! The blue is a trough. The cold air will drain into that trough. Now, look at the Gulf of Mexico. That's another ridge and very warm air. That is the resistance to the cold air coming south. Where those 2 air masses meet, it's VERY UNSETTLED! It's a fight between warm and cold. This battle will be right over Arkansas with storm system after storm system after storm system. Can one bring wintry weather? It's possible IF the southeast ridge is displaced a little further away from the state and the trough is able to penetrate more into our area. Otherwise, it's not a great chance.
Temperature anomalies on the Euro. Blues and greens are readings well below average and the oranges are above average. See how we're in between!?
Precip anomalies through February 19th shown in blue. That's quite a bit of rain. That's the battleground of the unsettled weather. However, this is nothing unusual as we head into a wet time of year.
NOAA is on board with this pattern. On the left side you can see the cold west, warm southeast. On the right, dark green represents well above average precip.
In summary, it's going to be active! Very typical for something like this to set up as we get closer to spring. This pattern will favor rain and storms. It's very important to remember we can have severe weather ANYTIME of the year and the chances ramp up as we inch closer to spring. While no widespread severe weather is in the forecast, it's something we must watch.
What about winter weather? This pattern has the potential to deliver that too. However, the stars must align so to speak. The southeast ridge must weaken a bit or move a bit to allow the colder air to push south. It can happen. You're seeing evidence right now how this pattern looks. A change from warm to cold with BIG snow over Texas and Oklahoma this week.
Thanks again for reading and thanks for your trust.