Here We Snow Again
It's possible once again next week, but the set up does have issues. Shocking, right?
According to my Facebook and Twitter polls, more than 80% of you still have a craving for a good snow. Remember, winter storms can affect Arkansas through mid March, then it really shuts down.
After a round of rain Sunday PM into Monday, our next big weather maker arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Amazingly, the Euro and GFS show strong similarities in the long range and have been doing so for a couple days.
Here are my preliminary thoughts, then I'll show you the maps. A vigorous disturbance will sweep in from the northwest and drive a powerful cold front into the state. It does generate moisture in the cold air and you'll never guess who has the greatest chance? Northern Arkansas in the higher elevations. Sarcasm.
There are 2 things to watch that have me concerned. First, once again, temperatures will be marginal with near freezing temperatures north. However, in the long range, it may not be seeing the cold air potential well enough. There is plenty of cold air coming down and the strong low enough can be enough to enhance lift and cool the atmosphere.
Also, surface winds are not in a direction which gives us a good shot of snow. Northwesterly winds will get you snow in northern Arkansas, but for the rest of the state, it can dry us out limiting moisture. If the wave along the front is stronger, maybe they can back to a more favorable direction, east-northeast.
Below is the newest run of the Euro. See the solid blue line? That's the 540 thickness and decent indicator of the rain/snow line. There's a strong area of low pressure aloft helping produce snow in the cold air mainly over northern Arkansas.
The GFS basically singing the same tune, but those surface winds concern me.
3AM Wednesday temperatures according to the Euro are only cold enough over northern and western Arkansas. Low 40s central, south, and east, won't get snow lovers what they want. However, these numbers can still come down and likely don't see the potential for enhanced lift from the strong low aloft. That can cool the column of air more than the models see.
Summary - Hey, we're talking winter weather and we really haven't been able to do that much this winter. There's potential Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but there are issues with the set up. Cold air will follow and it would be possible for on and off flurries Wednesday into Thursday in the mountains. It should be an interesting end to February.
As always, thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog and thanks for your trust.