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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Here We Go Again

More heavy rainfall is likely this week, but there are still some uncertainties. Where exactly will the heaviest rain set up and what impacts will it have on the Arkansas River? Of course, any heavy rainfall will not be a good thing. When the rain arrives, some of the locations northwest of Little Rock along the river will be falling. Will it slow the fall, raise the levels, or hold them steady? We won't know that until later this week.

There will be a tremendous influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will interact with a storm system coming out of the west. Rainfall amounts could be enhanced and more than what the models indicate. That's our worry right now.

Also, THIS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!!! This is something we really need to spread the word about. Lightning deaths increase this time of year because so many are outdoors in the summer months. PLUS, emergency workers and volunteers are helping flood victims. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE.... WHEN YOU HEAR THUNDER, GET INSIDE! You are close enough to be struck by lightning.

The severe storm threat will be there this week with high winds the main threat. I fully expect a flash flood watch to be issued as well. While we will have the threat for areas of rain and storms to begin the week. The chance for significant rainfall arrives Wednesday into Friday.

This is a product called Precipitable water (PWAT). The reds indicate where the moisture is very deep and significant. It's coming from a tropical feature located in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This tends to produce areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding

Euro rainfall estimates. THIS IS A MODEL AND NOT A FORECAST. This will not be able to pick up on areas of locally heavy rainfall. Some areas will see more than depicted here and some areas could see less.

The GFS is singing the same tune as the Euro. Areas of heavy rainfall. Each model run shows different amounts, but it sees the deep moisture and the heavy rainfall potential.

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