Halloween Chill???

My usual disclaimer, it's long range so don't take this to the bank. I have been watching the models, ensembles, teleconnection indices, etc over the past few days and there are numerous signs a strong push of cold air will arrive late this month around Halloween. It's too early for specific numbers, but I would watch this time frame for the first widespread frost and/or freeze. It fits climatologically too.

This is the GEFS mean 500mb heights from WeatherBell.com. The vast area of yellows indicates ridging to the north with a trough over the central and eastern United States. This is even more pronounced on the European model. This would strongly support cold air drainage into the areas east of the Rockies.

GEFS Ensemble mean 5 day average 2 meter temperature anomalies from Oct 28th through Nov 2nd. That's COLD for much of the central and eastern United States.

Now, I know the next question you're asking. Is it going to snow? Yes, but likely not in Arkansas. LOL. It's still too early for that, but it has happened in the past in late October. Just remember, it's quite rare until we get much deeper into fall.

Speaking of snow, I am hard at work making plans for this years snow making operations. I'm going BIG this year!!!!!!! MUCH bigger than last year. Click on the link at the top of the page "Make Snow" to see what we did last year. This year's contest will be announced most likely within the next month. I can't wait!