Last weekend, I highlighted southern Arkansas for strong to possibly severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has now placed that area of the state in a slight risk. While I do NOT expect an outbreak of severe weather, there could be a few severe thunderstorms warnings late afternoon Wednesday into the early evening. The main threats will be wind and hail. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but that threat is quite low at this time. The main threat will be with the storms along the leading edge, then temperatures fall off quickly behind it and the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Rain will be the biggest issue with 2-3'' possible across the southeastern 1/2 of the state.
The following maps best explain the situation on Halloween. I have placed simulated radar with forecast temperatures. Notice the air along and ahead of the storms is warmer and therefore more unstable. Once the line passes you, it's just plain ol' rain.
It should be cold Thursday with a few showers. We'll watch the forecast for the Race For The Cure Saturday. Right now, it should be cold and dry.
The computer models vary for next week. The GFS has a storm system moving through Monday and the Euro is a bit slower with it moving out Tuesday morning. It's an important forecast with Election Day coming up. We'll keep you updated.