Gordon Tracking Towards Arkansas

The exact track of Gordon is everything to the forecast. The newest data today is increasing our confidence level Gordon will have some impact on the state. The focus should be across southern and western Arkansas. Any deviation in the track will change the forecast drastically.

I also want to point out there may be a significant rainfall gradient across the state. Some places could receive 2-4'' or more while a few counties away, the amounts could be much less. Knowing where this sets up is dependent upon the exact path.

There is a bit of good news. This system is moving. The amount of rainfall could be limited by steady movement to the northwest. Nevertheless, tropical systems are loaded with moisture and heavy rain is likely. If Gordon slows, rainfall amounts could be raised. If Gordon speeds up, they will be lower.

What about wind? Areas near the center could see winds around 20-30 mph with some higher gusts once in Arkansas. By far, rainfall will be the biggest impact on the state.

This is the newest information from the National Hurricane Center as of 8PM. This track can still change, but probably not by much. Areas along and to the right of the path should receive the highest amount of rainfall. That's mainly southern and western Arkansas

The Weather Prediction Center shows the heaviest rainfall near that track. Some places could receive 3-5'' with isolated higher amounts. Notice northeast Arkansas may see very little. Once again, if the track changes, this will change

The European model is essentially on board with WPC's thinking.