Gordon Arrives

No recess Thursday for the kiddos. That will be the least of our worries as Gordon moves through the state. Thankfully, it will have some forward speed and not stall. Nevertheless, these systems produce flooding and Gordon will likely do that across western and southern Arkansas.

Gordon is weakening tremendously in terms of wind speed only. That was completely expected. The main threat for Arkansas is heavy rainfall. You can also never rule out a weak and brief isolated tornado, but that threat is low.

The rains arrive from southeast to northwest later today and especially Thursday ending Friday.

I have seen the overnight run of the European model and it's cranking out some very heavy rainfall amounts. There could be isolated pockets across western Arkansas exceeding 8''. This is worrisome due to the terrain and the enhance runoff into rivers and creeks. No one should be camping in these areas whatsoever.

The track has changed very little, but maybe a slight shift to the east. Gordon will go from a tropical depression to just an area of low pressure moving across the state. Wind gusts will be around 20-30 mph. It's not the wind we're worried about. It's the rainfall.

A flash flood watch has been issued for much of southern and western Arkansas. More counties will likely be added across northwest Arkansas.

The Weather Prediction Center has a swath of 3-6'' + near the path of Gordon. If Gordon moves east a bit, this will shift east as well. Same if it moves west, then the axis of heaviest rainfall goes a bit west.

The Euro in high detail shows the corridor of heaviest rainfall quite well with a very sharp rainfall gradient to the northeast. I discussed this in yesterday's blog post. This is a situation where one area can get flooded, then a couple counties away, very little rainfall. The Euro has been very consistent with a couple of isolated areas which could receive 8'' or even a bit more. That's just a model. However, I would not be surprised to see this verify to some extent.