Going For The Record
If you asked me last winter now many 100° days we would have this summer, I would have said, "MANY!" We haven't had 100° heat since the middle of July 2018 and the law of averages say it's coming!
Before I get into the meat of this post, I'm sorry for not blogging more. Summer is typically the least busiest time of the year, but this summer has kept me running in different directions. One of those directions was east and I'll blog about that at a later date.
This is the hottest time of the year with a slow descent into fall beginning in August. 100° is still possible, but not anytime soon.
Average number of 100° days each year: 8
Average date for the first 100° day: July 17th
Latest first 100° day is September 6th, 1922
We have not had 3 consecutive summers without reaching 100° since 1948, 1949, and 1950.
According to those stats, it's still on the table. After today, Wednesday, we'll have the 6th longest stretch of no 100 degree days in Little Rock weather history (1095 days). On August 4th, it will be 5th longest... if we can get there! As far as #1, that's a few years away.
What are we looking at over the next 10 days? The Euro temperature anomalies show the period of July 18th through the 23rd with temperatures several degrees below average.
10 day precip anomalies have it wetter than average too which goes along with the outlook for cooler temps. Remember, "cooler" is relative. Average highs are in the low 90s. If we have highs in the upper 80s with lots of humidity, it will feel like 100 at times.
The more rain we receive now, the less likely we'll have 100 degrees in the short term. The sun's energy will go into evaporating soil moisture. Once that's gone, an it can dry out quickly, the energy is efficient in heating the surface.
The Euro ensemble temperature forecast through the 28th says no 100° heat. While I believe this to be true over the next 7 days, it may be a bit questionable beyond that. It really depends on how much rain we receive next week.