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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian


Very proud of our forecast since last week NOT calling for accumulating snowfall in Arkansas behind the arctic boundary. It's just not the way we receive snow around here. Although, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if someone in Chicot or Ashley county saw a flake or two mix in with the rain last night. There was no accumulation.

There's no doubt the big weather story will be the cold over the next few days, then the rapid return to milder weather. I do NOT think the mild air will stick around long though. I think we'll go into an active pattern later next week. More on that later.

Many days ago, I mentioned here on the blog that the best chance for any snow in this situation would be northern Arkansas in a northwesterly wind flow. The cold air is now in place. The combination of a weak disturbance, arctic air squeezing out moisture, and lift from the hills/mountains of northern Arkansas could produce scattered flurries tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Snow ratios are high meaning it will only take a tiny amount of moisture to cause accumulations. Now the bad news for snow lovers. This disturbance will have to overcome an enormous amount of dry arctic air. At this time, I think only a dusting in spots will be possible across northern and northeastern Arkansas and I have doubts about that. However, a few flakes may fly up there. Further south into central and southern Arkansas, it's highly unlikely it will push this far south.

2AM HRRR. Flurries and light snow showers far northern Arkansas. Another model, RPM, shows this more expansive a bit further south. Something to watch.

4AM flurries north. Again, the RPM shows a bit more than this, but not much more.

RPM as I said is further south and more expansive with a dusting in spots north. This is something to watch, but I have doubts.

GFS keeps it near the Missouri border

NAM singing same tune as GFS.

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