First Flakes To Fly?

It's entirely possible for the first flakes of the winter to fly in Arkansas later this week, but it's likely going to be one of those situations where more people are disappointed snow didn't fall where they live.

Forgive me if you've heard this before. The greatest chance for any snow will be the higher elevations of northern Arkansas. Somebody needs to write a song about that.

There are 2 things going against this in my opinion. First, the position of the upper low is not favorable and surface temperatures are likely to be above freezing for most of us outside of the higher elevations. When all is said and done, it will just serve as a reminder the seasons are changing. Could we see snow outside of the Ozarks? It's possible, but a mix of rain and snow would be the most likely scenario. However, as things stand this morning, it looks like a brief shot of cold rain.

Nevertheless, I'm sure we'll have pictures and video coming in from northern Arkansas making the rest of us jealous.

Remember, this does not happen until Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In the world of weather, that's an eternity and things change. Stay with KATV Channel 7.

This is the NAM at Midnight Thursday. ALL temperatures above freezing with a mix in the higher elevations.

Accumulations, according to a model (not a forecast), show that chance across the higher elevations. The model sees the River Valley very well and keeps it just rain there. It also has a dusting in the higher elevations of west central Arkansas, but I find this unlikely.

To sum it up, a typical early season mixed wintry weather event may unfold. Temperatures at the surface do not look favorable to me, except the Ozarks. I'll keep you updated.