A REAL taste of fall is not far away, if you believe the computer models.
Meteorological summer ends Monday and we'll wrap up this summer without any 100° heat. It will be the first time we've had back-to-back summers without reaching 100° since 1967-1968.
We'll also end this summer with well below average temperatures and well above average rainfall. Now we're falling into September and we have a REAL chance for fall-tastic air. While much of this upcoming week will feature below average temperatures, an even greater push of cool air may arrive during or just after Labor day.
This is a birds eye view of the northern hemisphere. That ridge over western Canada would make January proud! The trough downstream is huge. This implies the jet stream will amplify around Labor Day and dislodge cool air in Canada. It will slide south.
NOAA 6-10 day outlook has a good chance for below average temperatures lining up with the trough.
The 8-14 day outlook, September 5-9, indicates high confidence for below average temperatures.
Euro ensemble guidance. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. Look at the trend following Labor Day.
The GFS ensemble guidance. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.
Looks like a nice cool down with hopefully less humid air. How cool though and how long will it last? The Climate Prediction Center has it lasting through much of September. This is there 3-4 week outlook with a good chance for below average temperatures