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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Fall Foliage Forecast

The predictive map uses a complex algorithm that carefully analyzes several million data points and outputs approximately 50,000 predictive data pieces. This data then enables our program to forecast county-by-county the precise moment when peak fall will occur.

What data does use to create the map? Some of the data points processed by the algorithm include:

  • NOAA historical temperatures

  • NOAA historical precipitation

  • NOAA forecast temperatures

  • NOAA forecast precipitation

  • Historical leaf peak trends

  • Peak observation trends

  • User Reports

We all know Arkansas is in a bad drought and it will likely not improve anytime soon. Drought conditions will have an effect on colors and some leaves are already falling due to stress. Hope I'm wrong, but vivid colors will not be as widespread as years past. Also, the duration of any colors may be short.

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From the map creator and brand found David Angotti...


"In 2013, potential visitors to the Smoky Mountain region began asking us questions about when the leaves would be most brilliant. From these questions, we built the first version of the fall leaf map and have consistently improved it each year. What started as a fun side-project quickly became the most respected nationwide fall leaf map and one of the best fall resources in the country. Now, tens of millions of people use our map each year to plan vacations, weddings, and photography trips. However, the most common use is individuals using the leaf map to check when leaves will peak near their home."
" utilizes a refined data model that depends on a combination of factors, including historical temperature and precipitation, forecast temperature and precipitation, the type of tree known to be prominent in that geographic region, the historical trends in that area, and user data. In addition to the past factors, we are introducing the capability for end-users to provide real-time leaf reports that will impact both updates and future models. However, similar to any meteorological forecast that is dependent on weather variables, the leaf predictions are not 100% accurate. That being said, after publishing our predictive fall foliage map for nearly a decade, we are confident in our data sources, process, and algorithm."
"While we do refine our proprietary predictive algorithm each year, the data sources behind the map remain the same. Our model ingests multiple data points including NOAA precipitation forecasts, historical precipitation, average daylight exposure and temperature forecasts. We process hundreds-of-thousands of data points from a variety of private and government sources to accurately predict the precise moment fall will occur for the entire United States."

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