Did Someone Say Snow?
From near 70° to the 30s with snow possible!. That's how you "Arkansas". It's very possible for flakes to fly, but this is once again a marginal situation with temperatures most likely to end up on the wrong side for snow lovers. Let me explain the setup first.
Temperatures will be well into the 60s to near 70 degrees Monday. This is one of the many factors going against any accumulation. The ground is cold, but probably won't be cold enough for most. Cold air begins to move into Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning with a very strong cold front. The high Tuesday will be set early in the day and drop to 33-36° by the morning. We'll only rebound a little by the afternoon.
Remember the properties of cold air? It's heavy, dense, and shallow. It will be coldest in eastern and northeastern Arkansas as it works around the Ozarks. This will be going on at the same time a fast moving area of moisture advances in from the southwest. While most of what falls will be rain, there will be a chance for a brief period of snow or rain mixed with snow.
As all this is happening, the surface temperatures for most of us will be above freezing. Some of the modeling out there shows snow accumulation, but I'm hesitant due to guidance temperatures. If that starts trending colder, then my tune may have to start changing. I think the best course of action is the following
- Warm Monday
- Cold arrives Monday night and Tuesday morning with wind
- A cold rain begins to fall for much of the Channel 7 viewing area
- A change to snow or a rain/snow mix possible along the north edge Tues. AM
-Ground and surface temperatures too warm for accumulation
-Most of the moisture gone by the afternoon
- BIGGEST WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE COLDER AIR!!!!
Below is the Euro Tuesday. Pink is a mix and white/purple snow. Obviously, rain is green. I have overlaid the surface temperatures. Notice where precip is falling, those readings are all above 32°. If it trends colder, we'll have to reexamine our forecast.