Delta Flying Towards Arkansas
Rain will become likely and some of it could be heavy, BUT it all depends on the track. At this time, the center of the storm will pass just east of Arkansas, but it will be close enough for significant rain over the eastern 1/2 of Arkansas.
I can't stress this enough, any minor change in the track could make a remarkable difference in how much rain a particular location will receive. Here are my key takeaways this Thursday morning
There will be a very tight rainfall gradient. In other words, amounts will change greatly over a short distance.
At this time, models show around 2'' in central Arkansas
We will probably exceed our YEARLY rainfall late this week when Delta arrives. So far in 2020: 49.28’'. Yearly Average: 49.75’'
Delta arrives Friday over southern Arkansas with rain expanding north during the day.
Rain should decrease Saturday
The center of Delta will pass east of Arkansas. This means the threat for severe storms and tornadoes will be near zero.
Winds will be strong and out of the northeast 10-20mph with higher gusts.
Flash flooding will be limited due to the relatively dry ground, but isolated instances will be possible.
Agriculture is the biggest issue with this storm as our farmers are in the middle of a harvest.
This will likely end up being the 6th tropical system to bring moisture to Arkansas this year
Models have shifted east with the track with past tropical systems as storms approach. If that happens, the heaviest of the rain moves east
The opposite is true if it goes west. That would expose more of Arkansas to heavy rain and some severe weather. This option is less likely.
THE TRACK AS OF THURSDAY MORNING
MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! With this data, notice the similarities in amounts and location of the amounts. Also, look at the sharp cut off in the rainfall over western AR. TOUGH forecast to know EXACTLY where this ends up.
The official forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. It goes from almost 2.5'' in Little Rock to .24'' in Mount Ida. Remarkable cut off!!!! I'll say it again, TRACK, TRACK, TRACK, TRACK, TRACK, TRACK!!!