Delta is scheduled to arrive late today into Saturday, but there's still one unknown. Where will the sharp rainfall gradient set up?
We have a pretty good handle that it will be along the I-30 to highway 67/167 corridor. This gradient will be so dramatic, it will be the difference between a 1/4'' and 4'' within 40 or so miles. At this time, the greatest confidence for heavy rainfall is across southeast Arkansas and agricultural interests is a major concern with the ongoing harvest.
Track as of Friday morning is STILL east of Arkansas as expected. This will means the threat for severe weather and tornadoes is near zero.
Flash flood watch in effect east central and southeast Arkansas.
REMEMBER, MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There are 2 high resolution models keeping the heaviest rainfall out of Little Rock. They are the HRRR and the RPM
There are other models which have the gradient a tad to the west.
A close in look at the NAM shows that dramatic difference in just 45 miles. Please remember these are computer generated models and should not be taken literally.
Wind will also be a concern. The HRRR wind gusts Saturday will be greatest over southeastern Arkansas. This model has a habit of overestimating winds, but you get the idea. It's areas closest to the track, over the delta, with the threat for gusty winds late Friday night into Saturday.
Below is the official forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Ashley, Chicot, Drew, Desha, and Arkansas county will likely end up with the heaviest amounts. Further west, they drop off dramatically.
The rain will increase from south to north late Friday, but especially pick up early Saturday morning.