Cristobal Arrives Monday
Heavy rain, wind, and even isolated tornadoes will be possible Monday as the remnants of Cristobal move rapidly through Arkansas. This will be a very comprehensive post with several maps to explain how this may unfold.
Before I get to that, retired National Weather Service Meteorologist John Robinson brought something very interesting to my attention Saturday after he looked at damage from Friday night storms.
Those storms Friday night were moving from east to west and the air pushed out of those storms were doing the same. That's an odd direction. As trees grow, they are able to better withstand winds coming from the prevailing direction of west to east or south to north. When it comes from the opposite direction, trees are more likely to be tipped over. A little tree science for you ahead of this storm! Initially, winds will come from the east, then the southeast. Strong winds not associated with individual storms will be capable of reaching 40mph and I would not be surprised to see gusts close to 50 mph over eastern Arkansas.
Now onto the maps. Remember, simulated radars are NEVER perfect, but this will likely be close. I'm using the extended version of the HRRR, and at this time, it only goes out to 6PM Monday.
By 1PM Monday, heavy rain is in southeast Arkansas and moving north. Both shear and instability will be more available over Mississippi and Alabama at this time, but southeast Arkansas must be watched for a developing tornado threat.
Now wind GUSTS according to the North American Model (NAM). Remember, this is a model and not a forecast. These winds may be a bit too high, but it will be wind along and east of the low.
3PM Monday. It's remarkable how the model sees the center of the low near near Bradley, Ashley, and Drew counties. There's a wind minimum there.
6PM Monday - the wind minimum with the low is located in southern Grant county according to this model. Look at the high winds over eastern Arkansas.
10PM Monday - winds are still strong over eastern Arkansas. Look at the minimum over Saline and Pulaski counties. The model sees the remnant low right over central Arkansas.
12AM Tuesday - high winds over eastern and northeastern Arkansas. The low is in Conway county at this point according to this model.
3AM Tuesday- the low is moving into Missouri, but wind gusts are still up there.
A recap of the official track from the National Hurricane Center. Looks like the NAM maps above!
Due to the rapid movement of the storm, rainfall amounts will be on the low end for a tropical system. That does NOT mean we're out of the woods in terms of flooding. Any tropical feature will bring heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible. If this was a slow moving storm, you could multiply these numbers by at least 2 or 3. However, this will move through rapidly.
Weather Prediction Center numbers have decreased a bit assuming a faster movement.
Flash flood watch for most of the Channel 7 viewing area Monday into Tuesday morning. Amounts generally from 2-4'' with isolated higher amounts.
This will be a rapidly moving storms limiting horrible rainfall amounts
It will be mostly gone by Tuesday
High winds will be an issue, especially over eastern Arkansas
Isolated and brief tornadoes possible mainly east of the center. We'll need to watch eastern Arkansas Monday into Tuesday morning.