Cristobal And Arkansas
It's looking more likely Cristobal will impact Arkansas next week, but specifics are impossible at this point. How major will those impacts be on our state? It ALL depends on the track!
Cristobal won't look like this when it enters our region, but this is intended to demonstrate the importance of the storm track. The worst part of a tropical system is the area right of center, especially the front right. This is where extremely heavy rainfall, wind, and tornadoes are the most likely. I'm hopeful the rapid movement of Cristobal will limit the potential for extreme rainfall amounts.
This Wednesday morning, Cristobal is making its first landfall in Mexico. This area is fairly flat and away from mountains. Mountains would likely tear the storm apart, but it should remain fairly intact over flat land.
While it will likely decrease in intensity, it should reemerge over the warm Gulf waters and gain some strength. How much? It's difficult to say at this time.
The National Hurricane Center has this making landfall west of New Orleans late Sunday into early Monday morning as a strong tropical storm. Could it be a minimal hurricane? Yes.
A friend and colleague of mine, Ed Piotrowski in South Carolina sent this tweet out Tuesday,
"Still 5 days away from potential landfall of #Cristobal and the cone of uncertainty covers Texas to Mississippi. Important to remember that based on a 5-year average of previous tropical systems, the storm ends up outside of the cone 1/3 of the time."
With that in mind, you now know how uncertain the exact track can be and how important it is to a forecast. If we are right of center, that brings excessive rainfall, windy conditions, and even the possibility for tornadoes.
The newest run of the Euro shows the track going over Arkansas. It's east to see with how much rain it has over southern and eastern Arkansas. I can't stress this enough. THIS IS A COMPUTER MODEL AND IS NOT A FORECAST. IT WILL CHANGE AT LEAST A DOZEN TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND.
The GFS has heavy rainfall over much of the state. Again, this will change between now and the weekend. However, you now know how important and difficult the track of tropical systems can be.
Thanks for trusting the team with the most experience.