Cold? YES! Wintry Weather? Maybe!
The arctic express will visit Arkansas this weekend with a huge drop in temperature and bitterly cold wind chills. As stated in previous blog posts, this is what you would expect in January and I do NOT expect this to be record setting here in Arkansas. However, this will get your attention. NO doubt! Also, with the total lunar eclipse Sunday night, temperatures will tank. Make sure you dress properly.
Monday morning will be the coldest, but how cold? Guidance output Monday had lows well down into the teens next Monday morning. This assumed snow cover. When the models took snow away, lows were in the 20s. Nevertheless, I go back to what I always say about arctic air. It's usually stronger than what the models say and gets here a little faster too. Therefore, even without snow cover, I think teens will be reasonable for lows Monday morning with wind chills near 0 to 10 degrees.
Look at the map below. The jet stream is buckling with a north to south component to it this weekend. Instead of it coming off the Pacific and flooding us with mild air, it's grabbing air off the arctic and sending it south.
Another HUGE snow will be likely from Kansas into New England. As the air travels over that fresh snowpack, it is not allowed to moderate. The models will not handle this well at all. You can usually decrease temperatures a few degrees because of this. This is yet another reason why lows in the teens Monday morning will be reasonable.
The models have waffled on the track of the surface low and how much moisture gets thrown back into the cold air. The GFS has a few flurries Saturday PM into early Sunday morning across northern Arkansas with little to no accumulation. This is one of those disclaimer things. "THIS WILL CHANGE. IT'S NOT SET IN STONE. STAY TUNED. BLAH BLAH BLAH"
The Euro is a bit more aggressive with sending flurries south and light accumulations across the higher elevations of the Ozarks. The mountain accumulations look reasonable, but how far south will we see flurries? Remember the ground will be wet from previous rainfall and mild too with highs in the 60s this week. However, I have seen ground temperatures cool very quickly. Again my usual disclaimer here. "THIS WILL CHANGE. IT'S NOT SET IN STONE. STAY TUNED. BLAH BLAH BLAH"
