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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Cold Returns

Say goodbye to this stretch of mild weather as we return to regular scheduled December programming!

We had an unusual cold spell in November and that broke several record lows and made November 2019 one of the top 10 coldest of all-time. The cold arctic air was replaced by mild, pacific air. Now, we're watching the pattern go back to one which delivers shots of cold air. We will still have mild days every now and then, but I see several shot of cold air in the long range. That does not mean snow, but at least we have one thing working for us as we head towards Christmas.

If you follow the models, don't hang your hat on any solution as it will change with the next run. I'm curious about the middle of the month with a storm system rolling through the southern United States. Again, that does not mean snow, but with cold shots coming down, it's that time of year to always watch.

Below is the Euro Ensemble. It's a birds eye view of the northern hemisphere. That deep red area from the west coast through Alaska is how we get cold. It dislodges the cold air and it comes south. The magnitude of the cold air and how far south it gets is always a question, but this is a favorable pattern for a return to cold weather. This map is valid late Monday. That's when our first front arrives with a healthy dose of cold air.

The Euro out to Friday, December 13th has the same configuration. As long as those oranges and reds show up west of us, we'll open the door to more cold fronts. Notice the blue over Texas. The ensemble is picking up on a storm system moving through the area. Again, this does NOT mean wintry weather. However, it's December and we'll watch it.

The Climate Prediction Center has put out a slight risk for much below average temperatures from December 12th through the 18th for all of Arkansas. This is an experimental product.

DO NOT TAKE THESE TEMPERATURES LITERALLY. IT'S NOT A FORECAST!!!! The GFS ensembles are even more aggressive with the return to cold. Look at the milder weather over the next several days, then a sharp drop. AGAIN, NOT A FORECAST. Look at the trend though. The milder weather is coming to an end. There can always and likely will be a milder day here and there. At this time, I think the odds for temperatures to be below average for Christmas are better than 50/50.

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