Cold Air Needs To Be In Place First
For widespread substantial winter weather in Arkansas, this is one of the most important rules. Wednesday models showed a chance for that happening, today it's gone. That's what happens in model land.
The European yesterday (Wednesday).
The low early Thursday morning is in northwest Alabama with cold air in place north of the red line. Another wave of moisture is coming up from Texas and that would be a wintry mix for Arkansas.
The newest run of the Euro has the low much further to the northwest over northern Arkansas. This would keep all the wintry weather out of the state... until maybe later.
One POSSIBILITY... The front by the middle of next week delivers a round of locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. The cold air follows and would be in place. Is there something behind all this to squeeze out wintry weather?
There's nothing like relying on the 198 hour GFS! That's sarcasm. It does show some energy hanging out in the southwest United States. This MIGHT be something to watch for the end of next week.
Bottom line summary... I continue to think we'll see a round of locally heavy rainfall and storms by the middle of next week. That has not changed. Could the run of the models today be a pump fake and it goes back to a more southern track and allows wintry weather sooner? It's possible. These are the problems and challenges of long range forecasting. Fun huh? LOL.