Cristobal Forming In The Gulf
It's the first day of the Atlantic tropical season and we're about to have the 3rd named storm. For a tropical system to have impacts on our state, they typically have to make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Texas coastline. Then the track become extremely important. If the center tracks near or west of your location, heavy rainfall is a big threat. Tornadoes can also be a threat anytime you're dealing with landfalling tropical systems.
Yesterday, models took the track over Arkansas and today they are well west of the state. We will see several changes, some big, in the models until this fully develops and the models have a better handle on it. At this time, it's just something to watch and not panic over. If you read my blog post yesterday, tropical systems in June are not unusual around here.
80% chance for tropical development this week in the southern Gulf. So where will it go once it develops?
There will be variations for quite awhile so take anything with a grain of salt. The euro tropical ensembles indicate a high chance for a tropical storm to make landfall along the Texas coast.
The following maps are from WeatherBell.com who predicted last March that this season would be very active.
The Euro Ensembles indicate a low chance for it to become a hurricane. However, it should be noted, it indicated virtually NO chance with the runs Sunday. Due to environmental conditions and warm ocean water, there's always a chance it does develop into a hurricane. I'm NOT saying that happens, but it can't be ignored.
EPS model guidance has a track which would bring effects to Arkansas. However, there are several tracks too far west which would minimize the impact. Once again, this will change many times between now and the time it gets into the United States. Take this with a grain of salt too.
GEFS has the system further east. Too early to forecast track and intensity.
When COULD this affect Arkansas? Look for sometime around June 9th to around June 12th. It's impossible to predict exactly at this point, but it won't be this week. Look for it the following week IF IT DEVELOPS AND TAKES A FAVORABLE TRACK.