Chilling Out
Yes, it will turn colder this weekend, but as stated numerous times here on the Arkansas Weather Blog and on KATV, this will NOT be extreme. We have been consistent with that message. This is a typical January chill. This may be just a tease for what's to come later this month as significant blocking sets up across the higher latitudes. In other words, while it's going to get cold, even colder air is possible down the road.
At one point the models were indicating lows in the low to mid teens as far south as Little Rock. IMO, that could only happen with snow on the ground. However, temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s will be possible due to extensive fresh snow cover to the north of the state. Air travels over that and models have a difficult time picking up on that. It's usually not reflected in guidance.
The track of the surface low Saturday is not favorable for widespread snow. It must go further south. The Euro has been trying to do that, but all the other guidance is further north. This allows a dry slot of air, then wrap around moisture brings light snow mainly to northern Arkansas and mainly to the higher elevations.
BELOW ARE MODELS AND MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE. STAY TUNED. BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH
The NAM is consistent with much of the other guidance out there. The light gray area would be flurries most likely. The darker gray denotes where the model sees light accumulations and that's in the higher elevations of northern and far western Arkansas. I have doubts about the higher elevations of western Arkansas though. I think this is mainly in the Ozarks.
The RPM is again very similar. Any snow that falls would be Saturday afternoon and evening north Arkansas.
The GFS is also similar to the models above. Wrap around moisture behind the low could produce light accumulations in the higher elevations of the Ozarks.
The Euro has been the most of aggressive with more moisture and a more southern track, but even the newest version has backed off on amounts substantially. The gray area would be a mix to maybe some flurries. However, it has any light accumulations across northern Arkansas in the higher elevations.
NAM FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THIS IS NOT EXTREME AS WE HAVE SAID ALL ALONG, BUT IT WILL GET YOUR ATTENTION. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SET EARLY IN THE DAY.
