Yesterday, the GFS had this valid for Tuesday, February 9th
24 hours later, this is what the new run looks like
Remember, the models will change in timing, intensity, track, moisture levels, etc. So what happened? A quick glance tells me it's slowing down a bit.
New run now pushes it to Wednesday. AND, THIS IS !!! NOT !!! A FORECAST. Just trying to illustrate the complexities of forecasting in the long range.
Guess what? There are about 26 more runs of the GFS between now and next Monday and all will show different solutions.
So what are the models trying to tell us? First, we are very confident it will get cold. Second, they are telling us to watch out for moisture in the cold air. Trying to nail down specifics are useless at this point. It's very much just something to keep an eye on and DON'T panic! Could be sunny and cold next week! That's on the table too!
ALSO, very important! The criteria for a "winter storm warning" has changed. It does not take much for one to be issue since we don't receive much winter weather on a yearly basis.
Winter storm warnings for the Channel 7 viewing area are issued for...
ice accumulation of 1/4'' or more
sleet accumulation of 1/2'' or more
4'' or more of snowfall per event with the discretion to issue a winter storm warning for lesser snowfall totals based on impacts.
Also, the National Weather Service is responsible for the issuance of all watches and warnings.