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  • Writer's pictureTodd Yakoubian

Bold Cold

I now want to focus on the longevity of this cold air. Read the previous blog post for more specifics on the late week cold.

Once again, we're likely not looking at record setting cold, but this WILL get your attention. We have had a relatively mild winter and this week will have highs in the 50s to near 60. That will change and change quickly. Previous cold snaps came and went. This will likely take hold and stay cold. It will be bold with little break so consider your warning told.

I can't show the Euro due to restrictions, but I can show the GEFS and it's similar to the Euro in that it has very cold air locking into the central United States.

I know you are wondering about snow chances. As chief meteorologist Barry Brandt says, "with arctic air in place, anything can happen." I would be shocked if we didn't get some sort of significant wintry weather out of this cold period. It all starts late this week and it will last for awhile. Heating bills are going through the roof as temperatures tank.

5-10 day departure from average temperatures in degrees C. Much of the country east of the Rockies is in the ice box. Notice it's warmer than average in Alaska. Some will think that's a surprise, but it's extremely typical. As a matter of fact, their cold air gets displaced and heads south. That's how we get cold most of the time in winter.

In the 11-16 day outlook, the cold becomes even more bold. Barney colors begin to show up and that's -10 degrees C below average. Once again, Alaska is cold, but above their averages. The cold is displaced and right over us. We call this, "winter".

This is where it gets very interesting. At 500 mb, you can clearly see the ridge going up in the eastern Pacific into Alaska. Those blues represent a trough over the central U.S on January 24th. This is a very cold pattern, but it gets even colder according to the GFS ensembles.

By January 30th, look at those oranges showing up over Alaska and much of area east of Alaska. That's massive blocking and that spells trouble. See the trough underneath. That's a continuous fetch of cold air coming down into our neck of the woods. THIS IS A MODEL AND NOT A FORECAST. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DATA SHOWS SOMETHING LIKE THIS. THE BOTTOM LINE, THE COLD WILL BE BOLD AND WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR AT LEAST 2-3 WEEKS.

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