BIG Blast of Cold
Notice I went radio silent over the past couple days with the "weird way to get snow" post. The prospect never really impressed me, although northwest Arkansas had some VERY light wintry weather.
The weather headlines next week will be the cold air. The models are doing something weird again! It has precip behind the front without a significant wave moving along the boundary. It also keeps surface winds north and northwesterly too. That wind direction at the surface is NOT conducive to significant snow. A northeast or easterly wind is usually found with significant snows as lows pass south of the state.
It will have to be watched, but I have a feeling the models will come back with less and less moisture as we approach next Monday night / Tuesday. Since the models do show snowfall, it will have to be watched. At this time, I think the best course of action would be to call for flurries and light snow showers north and northwest due to enhanced lift from the mountains, bitterly cold arctic air squeezing out any moisture in the air, and a northwesterly wind flow aloft which could bring a disturbance or two.
Snow lovers, don't get excited about this. The pattern looks cold and mostly dry. We'll continue to monitor.
The Euro has the front south of Arkansas by midnight Tuesday. See the faint gray arrows? That's the northwesterly surface wind. There's no significant wave along the boundary as it plows southward, nevertheless, the Euro is throwing precip into the cold air. Remember, the solid blue line is the "540 thickness" line and is usually a good indicator of the rain/snow line. Once again, as we get closer to this time period, I would expect the models to back off on precip amounts UNLESS a decent wave develops along the front.
The GFS is doing something very to the Euro.
The typically cold and wintry looking GEM may have the right idea here: cold and mainly dry.
In summary... it's exciting to see the models show snow, but this does not look like a good set-up to me at this time. I can see flurries and light snow showers for reasons stated above. If it changes, I'll let you know.