Arctic Express Has Left The Station. Here We Go.

Monday will be a wild weather day for most of you. We'll start the day in the 50s and end it in the 20s and 30s and that's before sunset! Winds will howl out of the north dropping wind chill values into the single digits and teens by Tuesday morning.

As far as snow is concerned, I'm sticking to my original thoughts that this will not be significant. I can't rule out a few slick spots over northern Arkansas. For a good snow around here, the cold air needs to be in place before the moisture arrives, not arriving as the moisture is exiting. Nevertheless, the situation Monday afternoon and evening can still produce a wintry mix of sleet and light snow, especially over northern Arkansas as discussed over the past week.

What about central Arkansas? It's still possible for a little sleet and/or light snow, but I would NOT get my hopes up. By far, the biggest weather story will be the cold air! Near record low temperatures will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

Beyond this bout of arctic air, temperatures should begin to moderate as the true arctic air is cut off from diving out of Canada. However, we'll still likely have below average temperatures. In other words, cold, but nothing like what we'll see late Monday through Wednesday. The pattern will also favor rain chances from time to time and that's normal. November is typically a very wet month.

The following maps are MODEL AND NOT FORECASTS. You will notice remarkable agreement with much of the guidance.

5PM Monday, the front is through the state and temperatures are dropping. It's a cold rain for most of us, but the higher elevations of northern Arkansas will see a change to light snow and light sleet. Notice this is on the back edge of the precip shield as the air cold enough to support wintry weather catches up with the back end of the moisture.

8PM, this model is showing the most likely area for a little light snow and some sleet (pink). It's still a cold rain for much of central, eastern, and southern Arkansas.

Moisture is exiting around 10PM with a brief change over POSSIBLE for portions of central Arkansas mostly along and north of I-40.

RPM snowfall projections are small and mainly confined to the higher elevations of northern Arkansas. REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

The GFS is a little more aggressive with amounts, but there is agreement on the placement of any snow.

The Euro snow amounts are similar in placement, but all generally .5'' or less north.

The bigger weather story will be the brutally cold wind chills Tuesday morning.

In summary...

1) Cold air is the biggest weather story. Near record lows possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

2) Monday will start off relatively mild with rain. The commute to and from work/school will be wet for many of you.

3) Wind chills will drop into the single digits and teens Tuesday morning.

4) Any change to a wintry mix will occur mainly over northern Arkansas with very minor amounts. However, a few slick spots will still be possible as temperatures drop into the 20s there.

5)Any change over in central Arkansas is very questionable, but if it happens, it will occur after sunset Monday and end before midnight.

6)The cold will stick around through Thursday.

7) Beyond this week, temperatures will likely stay below average, but the true arctic air will exit.

8) There will be additional rain chances as an active pattern continues through the month.